Attempts to Quantify Impact of Shedding in the Unvaccinated and Vaccinated (UK ONS Data, 2021 & 2022)

https://hervk102.substack.com/p/attempts-to-quantify-impact-of-shedding

Image 1. UK Non-COVID-19 (non-C19) and COVID-19 (c19) Mortality Rates (per 100,000 person-years) by Vaccination Status for 2021 and 2022

DATA FROM:

Jan 2021 to May 2022 from ONS released July 6, 2022   https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1january2021and31may2022

June 2022 to Dec 2022 from ONS  released February 26, 2023 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1april2021and31december2022

NB: Jan 2021 to May 2022 was 10 + age group & Jun to Dec 2022 was 18 +

Algorithm for Determining Potential Impact of Shedding

Examination of the non-COVID-19 mortality rates for the unvaccinated (unvaxed) revealed a nadir in May of 2022 of 795 per 100,000 person-years. This was subtracted from each of the monthly rates to yield the excess non-COVID-19 mortality rates.

Using the same algorithm, for the ever vaccinated (vaxed), the nadir of 1958 per 100,000 person-years the non-COVID-19 mortality rates was used to attempt to determine the level of impact of shedding in the ever vaccinated by subtracting this number from the monthly rates.

These are not randomized clinical trial data so the death rates in the the ever vaccinated are higher most likely because the persons who received the most number of vaccines over 2021 and 2022 were the aged and/or sick. Conversely the unvaccinated may have been less likely to be sick or visiting the doctor on a regular basis and avoided the pressure to become vaccinated. Therefore we expect the nadir of the non-C19 mortality in the unvaccinated to be substantially lower than the ever vaccinated. The ever vaccinated background for non-C19 mortality was at a 2.46-fold increased risk of death than the unvaccinated (1958/795).

In the unvaxed, the monthly rates for excess non-C19 mortality (potentially attributable to shedding) was 907 in 2021 and 232 in 2022 showing for both years that there were higher rates of non-C19 mortality than for C19 mortality [538 in 2021 and 160 in 2022, respectively]. Death rates by contagion (shedding) was higher in the unvaccinated than that due to COVID-19. The portion of non-COVID-19 deaths in the unvaxed potentially associated with shedding went from 53 % in 2021 to about 22.6 % in 2022. This showed an improvement.

In the vaxed, the monthly rates for excess non-C19 mortality (potentially attributable to shedding) was 6406 in 2021 and 6783 in 2022 showing for both years that there were higher rates of non-C19 mortality than for C19 mortality [515 in 2021 and 584 in 2022, respectively]. Death rates by contagion (shedding) was higher in the vaxed than that due to COVID-19. The portion of non-COVID-19 deaths in the vaxed potentially associated with shedding went from 76.6% in 2021 to about 77.6 % in 2022. This did not show an improvement. The monthly rates of C19 mortality also did not show an improvement in 2022 over 2021.

This risk estimation reveals that putative shedding contributed to non-COVID-19 deaths in the unvaccinated moreso that SARS-CoV-2 deaths in 2021 and 2022. However, the overall impact on non-C19 mortality lessened from 2021 to 2022 for the unvaccinated.

A similar attempt to estimate the impact of shedding in the ever vaccinated also showed higher levels of non-COVID-19 deaths potentially related to shedding over the rates for COVID-19 deaths for both 2021 and 2022. However, putative shedding continued to contribute about 77% of the non-C19 mortality rates in 2021 and 2022. Moreover the monthly mortality rates due to COVID-19 did not improve IN CONTRAST TO the unvaccinated FROM 2021 TO 2022.

It would seem that as long as one continues to vaccinate especially with the mRNA COVID-19 GENE THERAPY vaccines, that this will continue to contribute to shedding associated with both non-COVID-19 deaths and COVID-19 deaths. However, these shedding (contagion) risks are notably exacerbated in the ever vaccinated according to this analysis.

Accordingly, a significant proportion of the continued excess all-cause mortality in 2021 and 2022 over the comparer average (by week for 2015 to 2019), in part MAY to be due to shedding from the ever vaccinated.